August 19, 2020 update: While NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center continues to show this solar wind event impacting Earth on August 20, the SWPC isn’t expecting widespread significant impacts nor is issuing any advisories for this event at this time. While this could change, they currently have on their dashboard a G (none) for geomagnetic storming and are currently calling only a 1% chance of an R1-R2, R3-R5, or S1 greater event which relates to radio black-outs and solar radiation storming. NOAA explains these scales here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation.

The rest of this article remains unchanged.

 

Space weather experts at NASA and NOAA are warning that a solar storm could strike Earth on Thursday or Friday; in addition to triggering aurora far from the poles, a strong solar storm could also disrupt electrical generation systems, the electric grid, satellite communications, and radio signals.

Space weather physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov said aurora is possible in the mid-latitudes, which are typically at 30-60 degrees. Skov Tweeted, “This solar storm could bring aurora down to places like the United Kingdom’s Northumberland and Norfolk, United States’ Maine, Minnesota, and Washington, and up to southern New Zealand and Tasmania down under.”

While typically known for their weather forecasts, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) is also responsible for “space weather.” While there are private companies and other agencies that monitor and forecast space weather, the official source for our alerts and warnings of the space environment is the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The SWPC is located in Boulder, Colorado and is a service center of the NWS, which is part of NOAA. The Space Weather Prediction Center is also one of nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as they monitor current space weather activity 24/7, 365 days a year.

A coronal mass ejection, or CME for short, that occurred yesterday is responsible for this potential solar storm. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said the CME is “anticipated to arrive early to mid UTC-day on August 20.” They add that “confidence is low-moderate of a weak glancing blow, but timing and geomagnetic response confidence is lower.” Based on their latest analysis, the current forecast calls for “active” levels with a chance of G1 Storm Conditions on the 20th.

According to the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center, solar flares are capable of producing strong x-rays that degrade or block high-frequency radio waves used for radio communication.