Geomagnetic Storm Watch (G1)

 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Feb. 25th when a CME is expected graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was *not* produced by this week's X-flares. Instead, it was hurled into space by an erupting filament of magnetism (movie) on Feb. 21st. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

THREE X-FLARES, ZERO CMES: Giant sunspot AR3590 is living up to the hype. In only 23 hours spanning Feb. 21-22, the active region unleashed three powerful X-class solar flares (X1.8, X1.7 and X6.3). The X6.3 flare is the strongest of Solar Cycle 25, so far, and the most powerful flare since the great solar storms of Sept. 2017.


The ultraviolet afterglow of yesterday's X6.3-class solar flare. Credit: NASA/SDO

Extreme ultraviolet radiation from each flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing shortwave radio blackouts over Hawaii (late on Feb 21st), Australia (early on Feb. 22nd), and Hawaii again (late on Feb. 22nd). Mariners and ham radio operators in those areas may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz.

You might think all these flares would have hurled at least one CME toward Earth. In fact, the number is zero. SOHO coronagraphs have not detected any CMEs emerging from the blast zone. Sometimes this happens. Flares can occur without CMEs, and CMEs can occur without flares.

Disappointed aurora watchers shouldn't give up hope, though; AR3590 isn't finished. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-class explosions. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

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(Source: spaceweather.com; February 23, 2024; https://tinyurl.com/yb94yf8g)
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