Author Robert Inlakesh

On Thursday night, three bombs exploded on buses in Tel Aviv, with another explosive device being found in a separate vehicle. The event triggered hysteria amongst Israelis, while justifying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that a major military operation be carried out in the occupied West Bank. Yet there are serious issues with the Israeli media’s narrative concerning the incident, all of which have led to accusations of a false-flag attack.

While the story has now been subjected to a media black-out, as a result of Israel placing censorship over the emerging details surrounding the explosions, there was a brief period during which key evidence was spread through the Israeli media. In the absence of definite proof of any specific explanation, the story must be approached given the information we do have, combined with the context, in order for the reader to come to their own conclusion.

Although the explosions did not kill or injure even a single person, the issue has been weaponized by arguing that had the bombs exploded at a different time, hundreds could have died. This is the talking point which is now being used to weaponize the event.

What Happened? Truth and Fiction

As is very common for the Israeli government, its “official version” of events surrounding the bombing changed as the story developed, yet it is important in order to understand what truly unfolded. The first summary provided of the incident outlined how there were two explosives that detonated on empty buses, before a third was discovered by a female passenger and miraculously only exploded upon the evacuation of the bus. Then two other explosive devices were found in two separate buses in areas located over 4 kilometers from the explosion sites. The narrative later changed to rule out the second explosive device that was located. Miraculously, there was not single injury.

Despite very little evidence, the effort was quickly made to blame are Iran, Hamas, and the West Bank’s armed groups, all at the same time. Internally, the agency responsible for preventing such attacks is the Shin Bet, as well as the Israeli army that is tasked with preventing Palestinians from leaving the occupied West Bank, which is where the plot was alleged to have originated. Arabic writing on a single unexploded bomb was all that was used to back up this claim, which said “Revenge for Tulkarem” — referring the one of the areas in northern West Bank where Israel is currently illegally bombing and invading.

Although we are told that the “coordinated” attack was well planned, managing to evade detection from Israel’s entire security web of organizations, private security firms, and army (feeling eerily reminiscent of the “failure” of October 7) it was apparently also sloppily carried out, as the alleged assailants had mistakenly timed the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to detonate at 9PM Thursday night, instead of at 9AM Friday morning, or so the reports claim. The Israelis also indicated that due to two separate Telegram posts — released by a group that affiliates itself with the Hamas’s armed wing, al-Qassam Brigades, in Tulkarem — there were vaguely worded threats that appeared to make reference to the bus bombings, without explicitly claiming responsibility.

Immediately upon examining the reports that have emerged from Israel’s Hebrew media and the established facts that we currently have available, the above outlined narrative begins to fall to pieces. To begin with, we know that the event began just prior to 8:30 PM on Thursday night, because this is the time mentioned by the Fire Department in the area of Bat Yam (southern Tel Aviv). The first two buses that exploded, one after the other, had been detonated in parking lots of the Bat Yam Stadium and Bat Yam Country Club. As per the witness testimony of a woman who had informed a bus driver about a suspicious package on the bus, causing an evacuation of it, the backside of the vehicles was blown to pieces as soon as all passengers and bystanders had fled. The local fire department noted the following:

“At 8:30 PM, a report was received about a bus explosion in a bus parking lot on Amal Street in Bat Yam. Firefighters who arrived at the scene identified a bus completely on fire, with no injuries or anyone trapped. Firefighters quickly brought the fire under control and there is no fear of the fire spreading.”

Since the bombs went off prior to 8:30PM on Thursday, and not all at the same time, there is something immediately wrong with Israel’s initial security assessment which claims the attackers had mistaken 9PM for 9AM. Therefore, the assertion that the bus bombers messed up the time in this way is highly implausible. Another elephant in the room is why this explanation was leaked to the Israeli media during the first few hours of the news story breaking.

Also, if you look at any photos or videos of the first two exploded buses, they just so happen to be parked completely separate from the other buses nearby, in fact, in one case the bus is surrounded in a semi-circle of buses that are located just out of reach for an explosive blast of the kind witnessed.

The forth bus, on which the bomb was neutralized, was located over 4 kilometers away in the industrial area known as Holon, and the device conveniently had Arabic writing on it. This appears to have lent credence to the conclusion that a Palestinian group carried out the bombings, but failed. Yet, even if the writing is from a Palestinian, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they came from the West Bank, and could even be Palestinian citizens of Israel — or simply written to create this impression. However, the Israeli authorities and media instantly subscribed to the idea that the attack originated from the West Bank. To be clear, using nothing more than common sense, the writing on the IED would certainly be an important potential lead, but does not prove outright who was responsible.

As for claims that Hamas was involved in the event, a senior official in the Palestinian group speaking to The Last American Vagabond not only denied that any announcements were made claiming responsibility for the attack, but also stressed that the incident was highly suspicious and suggested that it could have been a false-flag attack orchestrated by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Then there is the allegation of Iranian involvement, for which there is no evidence, it is only a claim.

In the past, the Israeli security establishment has always been vigilant and often arrests or kills Palestinians who carry out such attacks within less than 24 hours. It is rare that any Palestinian who carries out an attack, especially in Tel Aviv, will survive on the run for long afterwards and there is usually evidence pointing to their identities that is recorded on CCTV which helps track their locations afterwards. Instead, the prime suspect that was mentioned to have been arrested was an Israeli Jewish citizen who was accused of transporting the attackers and their explosive devices.

Adding even more mystery to the case is that fact that the Israeli in question, who is yet to be named, has allegedly been denied access to a lawyer and will appear — behind closed doors — at Tel Aviv Magistrates Court, after undergoing an interrogation process to decide whether the individual knew who they were transporting and for what purpose. Unfortunately, due to the censorship imposed on Israeli media, we now have little information on the fate of this individual. This Israeli was one of two Israeli Jews that were arrested, along with someone else described as a “foreigner”.

A Deeper Look

While information is scarce, there is enough available to at least raise serious questions as to the true nature of the bus bombings. Firstly, the incident served as the perfect political gift to the Israeli PM, regardless of who actually carried out the planting of explosives.

Benjamin Netanyahu is now approaching a critical juncture in his political career, one that could make or break his far-right coalition. Having signed onto the ceasefire/prisoner-exchange agreement to end the war on Gaza, the Israeli PM now faces a major challenge. The tripartite agreement is currently in its first phase, but is set to advance into phase two soon, during which the war will officially end and all Israeli forces will withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

From the outset, Netanyahu has informed his public and stressed to his right-wing extremist allies, like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionism Party, that the ceasefire deal is only intended to be temporary and that he will return to the fighting in order to destroy Hamas. Smotrich and many others in his coalition have threatened to collapse the government if phase two proceeds, which has led the PM to request that phase one be extended.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and his calls for the US to “own” the territory, have helped Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist allies warm up to the idea of the deal, but not entirely accept it. In addition to this, Netanyahu has expansionist endeavors, such as declaring a de-jure annexation of the occupied West Bank.

However, in order to commit an annexation, it is likely that the Israelis seek to first annihilate all the armed groups that have popped up across the West Bank during the past two years, while also setting the stage for a process whereby many Palestinians will be ethnically cleansed if they commit some kind of an uprising. Justifying an all out assault of this kind, however, requires a major threat to Israeli security, which could be the threat of mass casualty bombing attacks.

The first visit to Tel Aviv by US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, notably focused on the issue of Iran as a primary topic of discussion. It was recently revealed by the Wall Street Journal, earlier this February, that Israel has been considering launching a large-scale attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. Furthermore, neoconservative think-tanks like the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, have also been advocating going after Tehran at this time due to a perception of Iranian weakness.

By claiming that Iran had somehow worked with a West Bank based Hamas cell in order to carry out a mass casualty string of bus bombings against non-combatants in Tel Aviv, Benjamin Netanyahu is essentially killing three birds with one stone. Israel’s PM now has the argument he needs to paint Hamas as a ceasefire violator that tried to commit massive bombing attacks in Tel Aviv, thus justifying him backing out from phase two of the agreement, while claiming that Iran and its use of armed groups in the West Bank are an imminent “terrorist threat” that has to be dealt with.

The Israeli Premier also scored another victory from this event by placing the blame on the Shin Bet [Israeli secret police] for failing to detect the attack. Notably, Netanyahu has been having major issues with Ronen Bar who heads the Shin Bet, even removing his organization’s roll in leading the Gaza ceasefire negotiations. Since October 7 of 2023, the Israeli PM has managed to eliminate every possible threat surrounding him and replace them with yes men. He managed to drive out opposition leader Benny Gantz from the war government, replace former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant with Israel Katz and recently put Ron Dermer in charge of the ceasefire negotiation team.

What Are The Plausible Explanations?

In order to determine what is possible here, we have to first rule out the impossible, or rather the extremely unlikely. The idea that Iran was behind this is perhaps the most ludicrous accusation of all. Tehran has taken repeated blows from the Israelis and held its fire, even when they launched two retaliatory attacks against Israel, they were both calculated, limited, and only targeted military sites. The suggestion that they would suddenly, with no immediate provocation to trigger such a response, decide to plan a string of bus bombings that would inflict hundreds of casualties is without precedent.

Hamas itself also stands accused, yet has denied any knowledge, and would usually announce its attacks even if they are unsuccessful. Hamas is also in the process of attempting to reach an end to the war in phase two of the ceasefire agreement. An attack like this succeeding would have undoubtably collapsed the ceasefire, so it would seem irrational and against their interests, to say the least.

Then we have the West Bank armed groups. The organizations have never managed to even pull off a mass casualty attack or ambush against settlers or soldiers inside the West Bank itself, displaying little military sophistication so far. These groups are primarily composed of young men, from ages of 17 to 25 years of age, with some elders and members of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces helping them. They are not comparable to the well-armed and organized armed groups in the Gaza Strip. Even if some of them label themselves as al-Qassam Brigades [the Hamas military wing], they don’t necessarily have anything to do with the movement’s leadership or the group they owe allegiance to in Gaza and outside occupied Palestine. For instance, in 2014 a group with an alleged affiliation to Hamas kidnapped three Israeli settlers, an event that the Hamas leadership had no knowledge of and denied involvement in. Israel weaponized the incident to justify their war on Gaza that year, yet Hamas did not actually organize the kidnappings.

It is likely that Israel could end up producing suspects that it then arrests and gives life sentences, who may even come from the West Bank, but it does not mean that they actually planned the attacks. In fact, Israel has infiltrated Palestinian groups many times in the past, even setting up Palestinians by getting them to participate in a plan to launch an attack that was coordinated by the Israeli security forces, then arresting them before it can be actually implemented — very similar to the way the FBI operates in the US. There are also various tools that could be employed to frame someone, such as blackmail. The mere fact that there were no suspects arrested within the days following the bus bombings is certainly suspicious.

While all of this is educated speculation, if it is true that this was some form of a false-flag attack, it would more than likely have been organized by a faction that is in lockstep with Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal agenda.

Proving what happened may be difficult at this point, but what we know for sure is that the incident has worked explicitly to the Israeli PM’s favor, in various ways, and at the perfect time.