-- is the nasal flu vaccine responsible? Part I

This is an investigation of published research and news reports.   Patterns seem to be emerging and it is important that they not be ignored.  

There has been a situation occurring in the UK for successive years.  Scarlet Fever -- a Victorian era disease, has been making a comeback in a big way .  Since 2013, cases have increased each year.  Now, the reports and articles have stopped as Spring arrived.  The cases seem to have diminished or ceased in the same pattern for the past 6 years.  Cases begin to happen in the Fall in each of those years and then like wildfire, stretch into each area of the UK, and not in any other European countries.  

Consider this:  The UK and the Netherlands have well-developed guidelines that are regularly updated and consequently have good vaccine coverage rates while in many other European countries guidelines are less clear and vaccination rates are declining. Another fact to add to this UK connection to scarlet fever.  This too - the live attenuated intranasal influenza vaccine [LAIV] [nasal spray], which is mainly used in the UK…

This pattern of escalating scarlet fever cases could be related to the nasal flu shot and where it is being administered.  When Winter ends, the cases of scarlet fever seem to vanish only to start up with even more momentum the following Fall, as more children are added into the vaccination schedule at the local schools.  Scarlet fever is caused by a toxin released by the bacteria Streptococcus pyogenes (S. pyrogenes), the same bacterial organism that causes strep throat.

Here was the first of many alarms sent out in the news-

Press release - Scarlet fever cases increase across England

Published 21 March 2014

Public Health England (PHE) has reported significant increases in scarlet fever notifications across England, with a total of 3,548 new cases since the season began in September 2013, compared to an average of 1,420 cases reported for the same period in the previous 10 years. The last season to have this level of scarlet fever activity was 1989 to 1990 when 4,042 notifications were received.

(Internet Archive Book Images) Found online here

Here is some information to help understand more about Scarlet Fever:

 ♦ Scarlet fever is less common now than in the past, but outbreaks still occur.

♦  It can be successfully treated with antibiotics.

 ♦  The primary symptoms are a rash, a sore throat, and a fever.

 ♦  difficulty swallowing

 ♦  feeling unwell

 ♦  headache

 ♦  itching

♦  nausea, vomiting, loss of appetite, and abdominal pain

 ♦  broken blood vessels in the folds of the body, for example, the armpits, groin, elbows, knees, and neck, known as Pastia's lines

 ♦  swollen neck glands, or lymph nodes, that are tender to the touch

 ♦  a white coating forms on the tongue that peels away, leaving a red and swollen "strawberry" tongue

 ♦  The skin of the hands and feet will peel for up to 6 weeks after the rash has gone.

 ♦  A person with scarlet fever who is not treated may be contagious for several weeks, even after symptoms have gone.

 ♦  Some individuals do not react to the toxin. They can carry and pass on the infection without showing any symptoms.  Only those who react to the toxin will develop symptoms.

 ♦  This makes it hard for someone to know if they have been exposed.

 ♦  A throat swab may help determine which bacteria caused the infection. Sometimes a blood test is also ordered.

 ♦  Treatment normally involves a 10-day course of oral antibiotics, usually penicillin.

 ♦  Another risk is known as pediatric autoimmune neuropsychiatric disorders associated with streptococcal (PANDAS) infections .

♦  Some research has indicated that strep bacterial infection may trigger an autoimmune response that worsens symptoms of certain childhood disorders.

 ♦  These include obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), Tourette syndrome, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

We are told that this Scarlet Fever is on the rampage. The United States does not keep count of Strep infections, scarlet fever cases, or cases of PANDAS.  Here is more on this history in the UK:

In 2013, there were fewer than 10 cases of the disease per 100,000 people.  According to the most recent data published in The Lancet medical journal last week, the number of infections has now more than tripled.  In 2016, there were 33 cases per 100,000 people.  “England is experiencing an unprecedented rise in scarlet fever with the highest incidence for nearly 50 years,” the study authors concluded. “Reasons for this escalation are unclear and identifying these remains a public health priority.”  In the U.K., the scarlet fever cases mainly affected young children with the median age of infection at 4 years old.  For children under 10, there were 186 infections per 100,000 people, according to the report.  One in 40 children were admitted to the hospital, and serious complications appeared in less than 1 percent of all cases. No deaths were reported.

Disease spread is a mystery

The study authors remain stumped by the spread of the disease.  They found that lab analysis didn’t point to a new kind of Streptococcus bacterial strain that might explain the new scarlet fever cases.  Although the disease has returned, the associated mortality rates haven’t.  Antibiotics remain an effective treatment for the disease....

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Tennessee, said that scarlet fever was traditionally much more feared than simple strep throat.

“Scarlet fever had these overtones of much more serious infection,” he told Healthline. “Perhaps more likely for the bacteria to get into the blood stream and cause complications.”

U.S. doesn’t keep count

Exactly how many cases of scarlet fever appear in the United States every year isn’t immediately clear.  Schaffner says he doesn’t believe there’s been an increase like what was documented in the U.K.  In an emailed response, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that they don’t track noninvasive infections caused by group A Streptococcus bacteria.  These infections include common infections like strep throat and rarer ones like scarlet fever.

“We do estimate there are several million cases of non-invasive group A strep illnesses, like strep throat and impetigo [rash or sores around the mouth,] each year (but that data isn’t teased out),” the CDC said.  In the United States, Schaffner said, scarlet fever disease has been so rare that there have been generations of medical students who haven’t seen a case.

“Scarlet fever, like whooping cough, is a disease of yesteryear, and its return is indeed puzzling,” he said.

Could disease travel?

The new cases in the U.K. have coincided with a rise in Asia from 2009 to 2015.  However, the study authors said it wasn’t clear that these Asian outbreaks were related to the rise of the disease in the U.K.  Additionally, OTHER CASES WEREN'T PRESENT IN THE REST OF EUROPE (emphasis mine), which might be expected if it was linked to the Asian outbreaks.

Schaffner said that there is a potential for the disease to arrive in the United States, especially from children who travel from the U.K.  “A child could acquire group A strep and get on a plane and get off at Minneapolis and have contact with his or her cousins and spread the infection,” he said.

Graph online here.

This recent report gives us numbers from Fall 2017 into the Spring.  Very frightening increases.:

Public Health England (PHE) says 20,372 cases of scarlet fever have been reported since mid-September 2017, compared to an average of 9,461 for the same period over the last five years.

In the week to 8 April, 1,180 cases of scarlet fever were reported, although this figure is likely to increase as further reports come in. Almost 2,000 cases were reported in the 12th week of 2018 - more than a third higher than the peak last year - and likely to be the highest level since records began.

Rates of scarlet fever across England are varied, but all areas are reporting higher levels than at the same time last year.

Coincidence does not necessarily mean causation here but the timing is significant.

All children in the UK aged 2 have been offered vaccination against flu since September 2013,   and the programme was extended last year to include infant school children. It is gradually being rolled out to include all children aged 2 to 17.....

Quadrivalent vaccines with an additional type of B virus have been developed and were available in the UK from 2013...Live attenuated flu vaccine (Fluenz™ Tetra) has been shown to provide greater protection for children than inactivated flu vaccine. This vaccine is the preferred vaccine for children aged two to less than 18 years.

Scarlet fever has significantly increased across England, with a total of 3,548 new cases since September 2013.   

In Part II we will look ar some of the news stories to look for patterns.  

                       ---  "I'm frightened. Of us." - Ralph - Lord of the Flies   ---